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TRENDING & SPENDING Continued from page 21 Trade Show Executive's Trending & Spending Forecast Fig. V: Sector Performance BEST PERFORMING SECTORS y Apparel y Security y Business Services MIXED PERFORMANCE y Communications y Government y Manufacturing y Automotive y Housing ECONOMIC INDICATORS Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged in April at 69.2 but well above the all-time low of 25.3 in September 2011. Core Inflation, which omits volatile food and energy prices, climbed 0.2% in March over February with the cost of shelter, autos, medical care, recreation and apparel all on the rise. Corporate Earnings moderated and are forecasted to climb 6.2% in the 1st Quarter. It will be the second quarter to break a streak of eight consecutive quar- ters of double-digit growth. It will also be a fraction of the 17.3% growth in Q3 of 2011 and the 28% growth in Q4 of 2010. Gross Domestic Product increased at an annual rate of 2.2% in Q1 of 2012, based on advance estimates by the Bureau of Economic Analysis and subject to revi- sion on May 31. Housing Starts for single family homes in March slipped 5.8% from February to a seasonally adjusted rate of 654,000 units. Industrial Production was unchanged in March for a second month but rose at an annual rate of 5.4% in the First Quarter of 2012 Interest Rates (short term) remained near 0% in April, maintaining the ultra-low level set in Dec. 2008. Job Growth was disappointing in March. Only 120,000 jobs were created against expectations of 205,000. Te Leading Economic Index, a weighted gauge of 10 economic indicators that helps predict the future direction of the economy, rose 0.3% in March to 95.7. Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expand- ed in April by 1.4 percentage points to 54.8%. It was the 33rd consecutive month of expansion, according to the latest ISM Report. Retail Sales in March rose 0.8% last month, nearly three times projections. Te unemployment rate fell to 8.2%, but mainly because 164,000 discouraged individuals stopped looking for work. y Medical y Retail y Food SECTORS UNDER PRESSURE y Construction y Home Furnishings y Technology y Hospitality y Transportation the job market and probably caused some prospective homebuyers to delay their decisions," he said. Will the Slowdown Get Worse? "I would be surprised if it continues for more than a couple of months," said Chow. He said the main reasons for the slowdown are temporary and the U.S. recovery is more broad-based and stronger than last year: } Te housing decline appears to be bottoming out. } Te financial sector has resumed lending. } Te auto industry is strengthening. } Discoveries of vast U.S. shale deposits and new fracturing technology are sparking an oil and natural gas boom. } Healthcare and technology firms are growing. } Te NFIB statistics for its 350,000 members indicate that jobs are finally being created, but at a slow pace. "Furthermore, the underlying tre nd for the economy remains positive," Chow emphasized. "Te Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose for the sixth straight month, suggesting the economy will pick up later this year. Retail sales in March rose 0.8% — almost three times more than projected — and surprised analysts." Chow said all of those developments suggest that economic growth was probably not as weak as many had feared. He also noted that the pace of job openings for the overall economy continued its upward post-Great Recession trend. "Te job openings rate stands at 2.6% of total employment, the highest rate since 2008," he said. Outlook for Housing is Trending Higher Te first three months of 2012 was the best Winter for home sales in five years. Te NAHB/First American Improving Markets Index grew again in April, albeit at a slower rate, rising from 99 to 101. Te index revealed one fourth of all metro areas are improving. Builders are planning to construct more homes in 2012 than in the past three and a half years. First-time buyers, who are 22 May 2012 | Trade Show Executive critical to a housing recovery, are rising slightly. Foreclosures are declining and the supply of homes for sale is falling. "Te magnitude of shadow inventory in the banks' inventory could eventually overwhelm the market, but the trend toward short sales will speed up the process of clearing out this inventory of homes," Chow said. So far, 23% of S&P; 500 companies have reported results, and more than four-fifths have beaten expectations, topping consensus forecasts by an average factor of 8.8%. Outlooks for the rest of the year have been mostly favorable. Frank Chow, TRADE SHOW EXECUTIVE Corporate Earnings Beat Expectations Chow said corporate earnings reports for the First Quarter have alleviated much of his concern about the underly- ing economy. "So far, 23% of S&P; 500 companies have reported results, and more than four-fiſths have beaten ex- pectations, topping consensus forecasts by an average factor of 8.8%," he said. Tomson Reuters proprietary research revealed that profit growth in the First Quarter was up 6.2%, handily beating the consensus expectation of 3%. "Outlooks for the rest of the year have been mostly favorable," he indicated. A good example is Union Pacific Corp. and CSX — two railroad giants. UP and CSX reported First Quarter net income jumped 35% and 14% respectively, he indicated. Both railroads were hauling more containers of consumer goods and both were able to increase rates enough Continued on page 25 SPONSORED BY