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TR E N D I NG & S PE N D I NG Apparel Automotive Business Services Hospitality Continued from page 25 according to a Wells Forgo U.S. economic forecast, just the prospects of further tax hikes or big spending cuts will cause consumers and businesses to remain cautious about spending, Chow warned. Two Early Threats to the Economy in 2013 For small businesses, an imminent risk is excessive regulations. According to Tomas Donohue, president and CEO of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the new health care law is creating "extraordinary confusion" for businesses as they try to comply with the complicated rules and could drive costs through the roof. [Note: A webinar on the requirements and expected impacts of the U.S. Afordable Care Act, dubbed "Obamacare," will be presented February 25 by the Exhibition Services & Contractors Association (ESCA) and the human resources consulting frm SESCO Management Consultants and sponsored by Trade Show Executive. To register, contact Mitt Arnaudet at (972) 447-8212 or mitt@esca.org] As we highlighted in our column last September, about 4,000 new regulations are issued each year — this is a regulatory food. Businesses are facing a possible deluge this year since only one-third of the 447 regulations mandated by the Dodd-Frank fnancial regulation act have been implemented. Congress is expected to act soon on the remaining rules. Te Mississippi River record drought hasn't gotten much nationwide press coverage, said Chow, but it has the potential to downshif the economy into a standstill for the rest of 2013. Te University of Missouri's Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute calls the Mississippi "the most critical artery" of America's inland waterway system. Te river transports more than 90% of corn and soybean exports to the Gulf of Mexico. Many energy utilities also rely on river barge shipments of coal and oil. Commercial trafc along America's busiest waterway is in danger of grinding to a halt. Te U.S Army Corps of Engineers has been dredging parts of the Mississippi for over six months to give barges the depth of nine feet needed by 26 February 2013 | Trade Show Executive Sector Performance BEST PERFORMING SECTORS most commercial vessels. According to the American Waterways Operators, supply chain disruptions for January alone could afect more than 8,000 jobs, more than $54 million in wages, and the transportation of 7.2 million tons of commodities valued at $3 billion. Tis bears watching as it may have a ripple efect on food prices and the transportation sector, Chow said. A Pretty Lousy Two Quarters All this uncertainty is casting a cloud on the economy. For December, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) monthly index of business sentiment registered at 88, a level that, prior to the fnancial crisis, hasn't been seen since the 1980 recession. William Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said the group's members anticipate a "pretty lousy frst half of 2013." Te Tomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment for January unexpectedly dropped to the lowest point since December 2011 as U.S. consumers started the year feeling more worried about the economy. Marketing Decisions Will Be Subdued Spending decisions on booth space and design tend to lag the economy by three to six months, so trade shows scheduled for the frst two quarters will mostly like grow in the low single digits. Attendance growth in the frst half of the year will likely be subdued because fscal austerity is a reality, and trade show travel is easiest to deny or cut with minor out-of-pocket repercussions. Te degree of austerity is still yet to be determined, but the trend of governing by crisis doesn't bode well for long-term economic vitality. So, expect some attendance challenges, except for shows in the hot sectors such as energy and housing. International participation, boosted by favorable exchange rates for foreign currencies against the U.S. dollar, could save the day. Meanwhile, there are enough signs of life in the economy to avoid a recession. We must continue to lobby our politicians to focus on growing jobs. TSE Technology Transportation Security MIXED PERFORMANCE Communications Food Manufacturing Medical Retail SECTORS UNDER PRESSURE Construction Home Furnishings Government Housing Economic Indicators Consumer Confidence decreased in January for the third month in a row, dropping (8.1) points to 58.6, and erasing all the gains made in 2012, according to The Conference Board. Core Inflation, which omits volatile food and energy prices, rose 1.9% in December after advancing 2.2% last year. Today's inflation rates are half the long-term average of 3.8%. Corporate Earnings for the S&P; 500 companies are looking better than the dismal reports of a (1.0%) decline a few weeks ago. Although it is only Week 2 into the peak Q4 earning season reports, 69% have reported earnings above estimates, and the blended average growth forecast is 2.3% for Q4. However, corporations and analysts have begun lowering earnings expectations for Q1 2013 to 1.5%. Gross Domestic Product unexpectedly shrank for the first time in 3 1/2 years during the Fourth Quarter, declining at an annual rate of (0.1)% between October and December. Economists expected GDP to grow 1.2%. Housing Starts for single-family homes rose 8.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 616,000 units in December after falling (3.0)% in November. Industrial Production at factories, mines and utilities in December increased 0.3% from November and at an annual rate of 1% for the Fourth Quarter. Interest Rates (short term) remained near 0% in January, maintaining the ultra-low level set in December 2008. The Fed repeated its vow to keep rates near zero until mid-2015. Job Growth is expected to reach 160,000 in January [total nonfarm payroll], a marginal increase from December's 155,000, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Leading Economic Index, a weighted gauge of 10 economic indicators that helps predict the future direction of the economy, rose 0.5% in December after falling (0.2)% in November. That suggests a pickup in domestic growth is now more likely, compared to a few months ago. Housing, which has long been a drag, has turned into a positive for growth. Manufacturing in November moved off its low point of 49.5% for 2012. The PMI™ registered 50.7%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from November's reading, indicating expansion for only the third time in the last seven months. Retail Sales for December climbed 0.5%, beating expectations and reflecting the largest gain in three months. The Unemployment level of 12.2 million held steady in December. The unemployment rate of 7.8% has been at or near that prcentage since September 2012.