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TRENDING & SPENDING SPONSORED BY Energy Costs Skyrocket Just as Economy Picks Up Steam BY DARLENE GUDEA, president Darlene Gudea, PRESIDENT Frank Chow, CHIEF ECONOMIST Trade Show Executive's 3.0% APRIL Trending & Spending Forecast Fig. I: TSE Forecast of Net Square Feet of Exhibit Space 2nd Quarter 3.0% 3.2% 2012 Fig. II: TSE Forecast of Number of Exhibiting Organizations 3.5% APRIL 2nd Quarter 3.5% 3.8% 2012 Fig. III: TSE Forecast of Professional Attendance 2.0% APRIL 2nd Quarter 1.9% 3.2% 2012 Fig. IV: TSE Annual Forecast of Revenue 8.0% Year Ending December 2012 How Trade Show Executive Magazine's Trending & Spending was compiled Trade Show Executive Magazine's Trending & Spending Forecast aggregates information from numerous sources: government and business reports; interviews with industry experts and economists; and the TSE monthly poll of its 20-member Economic Forecasting Board. Unbiased, reliable data—whether positive or negative—is the foundation of solid business planning. Oceanside, CA – As 2012 begins to take shape, a bevy of surprising reports suggests the U.S. economy may finally be ready to climb out the anemic rut it has been in since the Great Recession officially ended in 2009. Several reports indicate companies may be loosening their purse strings to invest for the future and to hire again. Te beleaguered hous- ing market, which we profiled last month, has continued the positive trend started in the Fourth Quarter of 2011. Let's look at these encouraging developments. Last year, many feared the U.S. was headed for another recession or was already mired in one. At the Gold 100 Awards & Summit in Half Moon Bay, CA last Septem- ber, TSE's Chief Economist Frank Chow disagreed with that assessment, countering that corporations and profits were still very strong and it was the political uncertainty restraining further business investments including employment. "Despite the un- certainty in Washington, Europe and Te Middle East, companies are now restocking their inventories and hiring again," said Chow. More than 400,000 jobs were created in the Fourth Quarter and unemployment fell to 8.5% in December. Te momentum has carried into 2012 as employers added 243,000 jobs in January, the most in nine months, and unemployment ticked lower to 8.3%. By the second week of February, U.S. jobless claims fell to nearly a four-year low, ac- cording to the Labor Department. Health care, durable goods manufacturing, hos- pitality and food service were the basis for much of that growth. Te healthcare industry saw an especially huge gain of 350,300 workers. "I wouldn't character- ize the U.S. employment situation as great because 12.8 million people are still unemployed, but it's heading in the right direction and recovering better than most of the world," Chow pointed out. "It is a little known fact that since 2010, the U.S. is leading the developed world in adding manufacturing jobs," said Chow. In fact, global auto sales recovered sharply in 2011, he said. "Te U.S. led the way, with sales climbing 9.2%, topping even China's 6% growth." Other reports confirm the economic uptrend is broad- based and continuing into 2012: h Te Conference Board's gauge of future U.S. economic activity rose in January for the fourth straight month — the highest since July 2008. h Te Commerce Department reported retail sales jumped in January by the most in four months as Americans increased spending at big-box stores, department chains, bars and restaurants. h Te Census Bureau reported that various housing indices rose in January: housing starts were up 1.5% driven by apartments, and building permits gained 0.7% to 676,000 with the single-family component rising 0.9%. h Te National Association of Home Builders [NAHB] reported home builder confidence for new single-family homes climbed in February for the fiſth straight month to reach the highest level in more than four years. But is the Good Economic News Sustainable? "A bit of caution is warranted," said Chow. "Last year started off very similar with the first four months gaining an average of over 200,000 jobs before going into a swoon for the next four months." However, he pointed out that the decline in 2011 was exacerbated by Japan's tragic earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis, plus the political fighting over the U.S. debt ceiling. "While no one can predict the next natural disaster, we seem to have a stabilizing housing market this year; whereas in 2011, housing was falling to record lows and foreclosures came to a sudden halt," Chow noted. "However, a www.TradeShowExecutive.com | March 2012 21